Nasty Nine Best Bets: UFC Fight Night – Adrian Yanez vs. Gustavo Lopez

One of them is predicting a 1st round knockout, the other predicting murder. It’s a bantamweight battle on Saturday night and you know what that means…

Adrian Yanez vs. Gustavo Lopez

Tale of the Tape

Adrian YanezFighterGustavo Lopez
Texas, USAFromWashington, USA
70 in.Reach67 in.
Metro Fight ClubTeamXtreme Couture


Plenty of smack talk to go around and plenty of badassery to back it up. Although neither fighter has faced the level of competition to be considered a contender, both have demonstrated skillsets to make this one a pleasurable contest. High finish rates and they rarely make it to the scorecards, Yanez and Lopez appear to have extra motivation heading into the fight on Saturday.

Path to Victory – Yanez

Allow me to preface by saying that Adrian Yanez does have grappling skills. Although no victory has been attained by way of submission in 6 years, the submissions are there for a rainy day. However, to try and go sub for sub with Gustavo Lopez probably would not be wise, although we’ve seen stranger things.

The route to the win column runs through punches and kicks from a distance, sticking and moving, and going for the knockout when opportunities arise. Nearly 60% of Adrian’s victories have come by way of KO/TKO and Lopez has been knocked out as recently as 2018 (Andre Ewell). Yanez will need to use his speed advantage to avoid the deceptively powerful overhand of the elder Lopez.

Path to Victory – Lopez

Gustavo Lopez cares not that he comes in a +180 underdog. He cares not that Adrian Yanez is a highly touted prospect. On the contrary, per MMA Junkie, Lopez says, “I’m glad people are looking past me and thinking, ‘Oh, Gustavo is going to get knocked out by this dude,” Lopez told reporters, including MMA Junkie, at a Wednesday media day at the UFC Apex. “Who is this random Yanez dude who supposedly has good striking and good footwork? I’m like, ‘Could he swim? How deep in the waters can he swim?’

“They say he likes to scramble and likes to wrestle. I’m like, ‘You don’t like to wrestle. Wrestlers don’t like to wrestle.’ I’m going to put you in some deep, deep waters, and he’s going to get drowned.” continued Lopez.

Swim in deep water is what Adrian Yanez may need to do with an accomplished grappler such as Lopez.

Nasty Nine Prediction

  • These two fighters have reached the scorecards around 30% of the time, between all their fights. That’s enough for me to place a bet on the guy I like, and hedge the same amount on the guy who’s favored. In other words, my bet slip will show a wager on Gustavo Lopez to finish the fight (+320 on DK), but it will also show a bet on Yanez to win back the wagered amount of Lopez (+100). Call me Sonic the Hedgehog.
  • I will be placing a quarter-unit on Lopez to win by Submission (+600) but nothing to disrupt my bankroll limits (bet responsibly, please)

Follow me, Billy Graves, on my socials…

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